Tariffs and uncertainty keep global growth subdued.
Atradius’ latest Economic Outlook forecasts that global growth will remain subdued at 2.4% in both 2025 and 2026, representing a downward growth revision for all major markets. Advanced economies are expected to grow at a modest pace of 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026, while the outlook for emerging market economies (3.8% growth across EMEs […]
UK manufacturing output volumes fall in the three months to August.
According to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey, UK manufacturing output volumes fell at a sharp pace in the quarter to August, after being broadly flat in July. Manufacturers also expect output to fall again over the next three months to November. Output decreased in fourteen out of seventeen sub-sectors in the three months to […]
The outlook for the UK economy is “tepid” with increased risk of non-payment.
Allianz Trade’s Mid-Year Economic Outlook projects only modest GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, edging up to 1.2% in 2026. Headwinds include the spillover from US trade policy, alongside domestic pressures such as potential tax rises, persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Although insolvencies have eased this year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, and payment […]
UK growth continues to flatline.
The latest British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) economic forecast predicts that the UK economy will grow by 1.3% in 2025, revised up from the previous forecast of 1.1%. However, GDP is expected to slow slightly in 2026 to 1.2%, before rising to 1.5% in 2027 – unchanged from the previous forecast. The growth picture varies […]
Insolvency numbers in most sectors in England and Wales were similar to, or lower than, those in the preceding twelve months.
New data from The Insolvency Service shows that 1 in 190 companies in England and Wales on the Companies House effective register (at a rate of 52.5 per 10,000 companies) entered insolvency between 1 August 2024 and 31 July 2025. This was a decrease from the 56.6 per 10,000 companies that entered insolvency in the […]
In H1 2025, UK-listed construction companies issued the most profit warnings since the pandemic.
According to EY-Parthenon’s latest Profit Warnings report, UK-listed companies in the FTSE Construction and Materials sector issued eight profit warnings during H1 2025, four times the number issued during the same period last year and the highest total since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Listed firms in the sector issued three profit warnings in Q2, […]
Nearly 50,000 UK businesses are now in ‘critical’ financial distress.
Research by Begbies Traynor has found that, as of June 30, 2025, 49,309 UK businesses were in ‘critical’ financial distress, representing a 21.4% increase from Q2 2024 and an 8.6% increase from Q1 2025. All sectors covered by Red Flag Alert experienced an increase over the last 12 months. Begbies Traynor also noted that some […]
Food & drink sector failures were down in 2024, but are stagnating in 2025.
Tokio Marine HCC has published a report by Arwel Roberts on the UK food & drinks sector, which notes that most food-related sub-sectors saw a reduction in insolvencies in 2024. Notable declines included the manufacture of drinks (down 11%), the manufacture of food products (down 18%), the retail sale of food and beverages (down 22%), […]
The outlook for the UK economy is “tepid” with increased risk of non-payment.
Allianz Trade’s Mid-Year Economic Outlook projects only modest GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, edging up to 1.2% in 2026. Headwinds include the spillover from US trade policy, alongside domestic pressures such as potential tax rises, persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Although insolvencies have eased this year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, and payment […]
UK economy: Falling behind the EU with rising insolvencies.
Coface’s latest Economic Outlook forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 1% in both 2025 and 2026. While this places the UK in line with other advanced economies in 2025, it is expected to fall behind in 2026 (the EU is projected to grow by 1.5%). Inflationary pressures remain a key concern. Coface expects […]
Insolvencies normalise, but a trade war brings new risks.
Analysis from Atradius (published one day after President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’) suggests that while the ongoing trade war and higher tariffs will negatively affect growth, the impact on insolvencies may be limited, with global insolvencies remaining stable in 2025 before declining by 5% in 2026. Atradius’ baseline scenario indicates that the Asia-Pacific region could see […]
Data indicates a rise in corporate distress in Europe.
The latest Weil European Distress Index (WEDI) suggests an increase in corporate distress across Europe, which, as of February 2025, reached its highest level in six months. Germany and the UK (see paragraph above) have experienced particularly sharp increases, with German corporate surging to its highest level since July 2020, the height of the pandemic. […]
62% of UK firms with trade exposure to the USA say US tariffs will negatively impact them.
A snap poll of more than 600 businesses by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has revealed that 62% of UK firms with trade exposure to the US expect to take a hit from the tariffs. Looking at the breakdown, 20% report a significant negative impact, 42% report some negative impact, 16% report no impact, […]
UK compulsory liquidations in February were at their highest level in over five years.
The latest UK insolvency data has shown that corporate insolvencies increased by 2.9% in February 2025 to a total of 2,035 compared to January 2025’s total, and decreased by 7% compared to February 2024’s figure of 2,188. Tom Russell, Vice President of R3, commented: “The monthly increase in corporate insolvencies is driven by a rise […]
11.2% of UK companies are in distress.
The latest Weil European Distress Index (WEDI) indicates that business distress levels in the UK have seen particularly sharp increases compared to most of Europe, with levels at their highest since September 2023. The latest data shows that 11.2% of UK companies are in distress, compared to 9.8% the previous year, and the proportion of […]
Six in 10 UK small businesses say late payments prevent them from reaching their full potential.
A new GoCardless report, commissioned by the Federation of Small Businesses, highlights the growing issue of late payments for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the UK. A survey of over 2,000 SMBs found that 45% have experienced more late payments than last year, with 50% expecting the problem to worsen over the next 12 […]
China: Extended payment terms ease the impact of rising payment delays.
Coface’s latest survey on Chinese corporate payment behaviour reveals that the average payment terms for Chinese companies increased from 70 days in 2023 to 76 days in 2024. Although payment delays remained largely stable, rising slightly from 64 days to 65 days, Coface calculated that this indicates that the overall waiting time between product delivery and […]
Trade tensions and Eurozone weakness cloud the UK’s economic outlook.
A new UK Economic Conditions report by Tokio Marine HCC notes that the UK’s 2025 growth outlook remains disappointing, as trade tensions with the US escalate and the eurozone’s weak performance, especially in Germany, impacts UK trade. In January, the OECD and the IMF projected real GDP growth in the UK at 1.7% and 1.6%, […]
Insolvencies normalise, but a trade war brings new risks.
Analysis from Atradius (published one day after President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’) suggests that, while the ongoing trade war and higher tariffs will negatively affect growth, the impact on insolvencies may be limited, with global insolvencies remaining stable in 2025 before declining by 5% in 2026. Atradius’ baseline scenario indicates that the Asia-Pacific region could see […]
2022–2026: Five successive years of increasing insolvencies.
Allianz Trade’s latest Global Insolvency Report predicts that global business insolvencies will continue to rise over the next two years. After a 10% increase in 2024, insolvencies are projected to grow by 6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026—resulting in five consecutive years of rising insolvencies from 2022 to 2026. However, the possibility of a […]
Supporting SMEs: The role of trade credit insurance in building economic resilience
ICISA has published a white paper titled “Supporting the Economic Powerhouse: How Trade Credit Insurance (TCI) Supports SMEs, and How to Build on This for Growth and Prosperity.” The paper highlights the critical role SMEs play in the global economy and discusses TCI’s role in promoting resilience. While the proportion of SME business underwritten can […]
Exporting products or services overseas has become the top challenge facing one in three mid-sized businesses.
Barriers to international expansion are among the top pressures facing UK businesses over the next six months, according to BDO’s latest survey of 500 mid-sized business leaders with turnovers between £10m-£300m. Exporting products or services overseas has become the top challenge facing one in three mid-sized businesses (34%) due to disruption from delayed deliveries and […]
Small business growth forecasts fall for the first time since July 2024.
The percentage of UK small business owners predicting growth (33%) has dipped to a nine-month low, according to the latest quarterly data from Novuna Business Finance Business Barometer study. Whilst 45% see Q1 as a standstill period, there is a four-year high in the percentage of small businesses saying they will contract by the end […]
Five years after Brexit. Was it worth it?
Atradius has published an article in which its Senior Advisor, Silvia Ungaro, notes that, although it would have been a tumultuous five years even without Brexit, Brexit appears to have compounded recent challenges, with one analysis revealing a £140 billion shortfall in the UK economy, as a direct result of leaving the EU. “The trade […]
February’s insolvency numbers paint a picture of both struggle and resilience.
New data from Creditsafe has found that February’s insolvency data paints a picture of both struggle and resilience. 2,364 businesses across the UK and Northern Ireland declared insolvency in February 2025 — a 28% rise from January but 10% lower than the same time last year. Creditsafe notes that it’s a mixed signal: while the month-on-month […]
Corporate insolvency levels reached the highest seen in January in more than five years.
The latest data from the Insolvency Service shows that corporate insolvencies in England and Wales increased by 6.4% in January 2025 to a total of 1,971 compared to December 2024 and increased by 10.7% compared to January 2024’s figure of 1,780. Tim Cooper, President of R3 and a Partner at Addleshaw Goddard LLP, commented: “The […]
A sharp increase in zombie companies in the UK mid-market.
According to new research from BDO, the number of UK mid-sized businesses at risk of becoming a ‘zombie’ company has risen. In the last 12 months, 15.9% of mid-sized businesses have been deemed to be at risk of being so-called ‘zombie’ companies — an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous year’s figures. The BDO […]
UK: Late Payment, Business Distress & Insolvencies The number of UK companies delaying payments beyond 100 days reaches an all-time high.
New research from Good Business Pays reveals a concerning increase in slow payments among UK businesses, with the number of companies delaying payments beyond 100 days reaching an all-time high and several major companies identified as among the worst for slow and late payments. The Spring Watchlist, which examined over 6,000 companies’ payment performance, is […]
Coface’s 2025 Country Risk Handbook is now available.
Coface has published its Country Risk Handbook for 2025. The latest edition delivers a detailed analysis of over 160 countries, integrating macroeconomic indicators, sector-specific assessments, and political risk evaluations. The analysis includes: Detailed country-by-country economic indicators and forecasts Sector-specific risk assessments across 13 major industries In-depth political risk analysis and its impact on business operations […]
Is the UK back after the “painful Brexit episode?”
Coface has indicated that, following a period of intense political turmoil, the UK is now on a path to greater stability and gradual recovery, supported by easing corporate insolvencies, lower interest rates, and pro-growth policies in the pipeline. For example, the Planning Bill, set to be introduced in March, is expected to benefit the construction […]