A new UK Economic Conditions report by Tokio Marine HCC notes that the UK’s 2025 growth outlook remains disappointing, as trade tensions with the US escalate and the eurozone’s weak performance, especially in Germany, impacts UK trade. In January, the OECD and the IMF projected real GDP growth in the UK at 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, but the Bank of England halved its forecast to 0.8% in February. Meanwhile, Consensus Economics, which aggregates projections from various forecasters, currently expects 1.4% growth, though risks remain tilted towards the downside. The potential for increased US tariffs on British exports, which accounted for 22% of UK exports in 2023, poses a significant risk, though services (making up 70% of UK exports to the US) may be less affected. While business failures in the UK dropped by 5% in 2024, insolvencies remain above pre-COVID levels, with 23,880 failures. To read Tokio Marine HCC’s full news release, go to https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-economic-conditions-report-march-2025.