Allianz Trade’s Mid-Year Economic Outlook projects only modest GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, edging up to 1.2% in 2026. Headwinds include the spillover from US trade policy, alongside domestic pressures such as potential tax rises, persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Although insolvencies have eased this year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, and payment behaviour is deteriorating. Over half of UK firms (56%) expect non-payment risk to rise over the next 6-12 months (vs 48% globally). Around 75% of UK companies are paid between 30-70 days (vs 70% worldwide), with manufacturers and larger firms waiting the longest. The result: big companies are increasingly acting as “invisible banks” to smaller suppliers. To read Allianz Trade’s Outlook, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_GB/insights/economic-research/mid-year-economic-outlook-majority-of-uk-firms-expect-increase-in-non-payment-risk.html.