Atradius’ latest Economic Outlook forecasts that global growth will remain subdued at 2.4% in both 2025 and 2026, representing a downward growth revision for all major markets. Advanced economies are expected to grow at a modest pace of 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026, while the outlook for emerging market economies (3.8% growth across EMEs in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026) is on average stronger. However, it remains weak by historical standards. The Outlook also suggests that, although global trade showed robust growth in Q1 of 2025 as a result of the frontloading of export orders, trade growth is slowing significantly this year, to around 1%, as a result of the tariff escalation and policy uncertainty. Trade growth will be particularly weak in the US, Canada and Mexico, and to a lesser extent, Europe and China. Atradius then anticipates slightly higher trade growth in 2026, around 2%, as the global economy adjusts to the tariff shock. To read Atradius’ Outlook, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/news/tariffs-and-uncertainty-undermine-global-growth.