Analysis from Atradius (published one day after President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’) suggests that, while the ongoing trade war and higher tariffs will negatively affect growth, the impact on insolvencies may be limited, with global insolvencies remaining stable in 2025 before declining by 5% in 2026. Atradius’ baseline scenario indicates that the Asia-Pacific region could see the largest decrease in insolvencies, with a 3% drop in 2025 and a 21% decrease in 2026. Insolvencies in North America could remain unchanged in both 2025 and 2026, while Europe could see a slight increase in 2025, followed by a 6% decline in 2026. However, Atradius notes that its baseline scenario is highly uncertain and warns that a full-blown trade war could increase global insolvencies by 6% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, with Asia-Pacific most affected. The US would also see business insolvencies rise by 7% in 2025 and 5% in 2026. To read Atradius’ news release, go to https://atradius.co.uk/knowledge-and-research/reports/economic-research-insolvency-outlook-april-2025.